105 Hickory St

Bull Shoals, AR 72619

$59,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $377/mo
• Annual: $4,521/yr
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.37%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $16,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($921 rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#92 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Flippin School District (rural): math 34% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 238 in AR (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 237 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 15 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $59k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.4% in Bull Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.