106 Madison Villas Way

Madison, AL 35758

$264,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,418/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$286
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-772/mo
• Annual: $-9,269/yr
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.50%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-772 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (51.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (46.5% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (51.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary School (math 53% / reading 72%, grade B, #51 of 627 statewide, top 8%, 505 students, 27% FRL); Discovery Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #13 of 257 statewide, top 5%, 1,334 students, 25% FRL); Bob Jones High School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 1,920 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.