3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Manufactured
· Active
· 404 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,550/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$566
Tax + insurance
−$78
HOA
−$565
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$326
Net cashflow
$16/mo
Annual
$189/yr
Cap rate
6.47%
Cash-on-cash
0.62%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
1.44%
Cash to close
$30,237
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($189/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: East Canyon Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 357 statewide, top 70%, 692 students, 33% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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