911 State St

Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$87,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $211/mo
• Annual: $2,530/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.33%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $24,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($605 loan paydown + $934 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.