8 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,952 sqft ·
Built 1968
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 221 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,915/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$483
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$612
Net cashflow
$299/mo
Annual
$3,585/yr
Cap rate
7.53%
Cash-on-cash
4.41%
DSCR
1.20
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 2 × 4-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $290k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $149/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Bayless El (math 47% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 518 students, 94% FRL); Atkins Middle (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 542 students, 87% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 60% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,915/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 676% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?