Churchill (Oakview) Plan

Carrollton, KY 41008

$85,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-139/mo
• Annual: $-1,663/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $24,079

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (23.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($594 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#129 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #163 of 165 in KY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cartmell Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #627 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 410 students, 59% FRL); Carroll County Middle School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #208 of 217 statewide, top 96%, 590 students, 59% FRL); Carroll County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.