540 Bayou Ave

Oak Island, TX 77514

$135,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$739
• HOA: −$104
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-188/mo
• Annual: $-2,261/yr
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (24.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,571 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Anahuac ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anahuac El (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 713 students, 64% FRL); Anahuac Middle (math 52% / reading 46%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 326 students, 61% FRL); Anahuac H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 454 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.