1614 Spruce Hills Dr

Glen Gardner, NJ 08826

$250,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,031 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$315
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,333/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#132 in NJ, #3,503 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• North Hunterdon-Voorhees Regional High School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #103 of 472 in NJ (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clinton Public School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #353 of 1,303 statewide, top 27%, 450 students, 12% FRL); North Hunterdon High School (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #90 of 399 statewide, top 22%, 1,237 students, 2% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?