5011 Rim Wood Rd

Strawberry, AZ 85544

$199,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-284/mo
• Annual: $-3,405/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (42.8% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#205 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Pine Strawberry Elementary District (4214) (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #126 of 501 in AZ (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $199k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.6% in Strawberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.