30901 State Route 20 Unit B5

Oak Harbor, WA 98277

$125,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,076/mo
• Annual: $12,910/yr
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.89%
• DSCR: 2.64
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#149 in WA, #3,120 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+.
• Oak Harbor School District (town): math 49% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #98 of 291 in WA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $125k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.7% in Oak Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.