78 Sunfish Bee Spring Rd

Brownsville, KY 42207

$44,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1979 · Other · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $396/mo
• Annual: $4,747/yr
• Cap rate: 16.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.76%
• DSCR: 2.68
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($859 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $794 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#234 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Edmonson County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #53 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kyrock Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #35 of 676 statewide, top 6%, 299 students, 54% FRL); Edmonson County 5/6 Center (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 253 students, 52% FRL); Edmonson County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 592 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.
• Edmonson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $32k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 2.3% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.