2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
873 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 104 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,127/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$430
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$237
Net cashflow
$318/mo
Annual
$3,822/yr
Cap rate
10.95%
Cash-on-cash
16.64%
DSCR
1.74
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$22,960
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Biltmore Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 191 students, 84% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 49% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $82k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HVRNRKF46PE1QJ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29