8951 Monte Vista Ave

Montclair, CA 91763

$10,500,000D-

782 bd · 885.5 ba · 28,258 sqft · Built 2021 · MultiFamily · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $79,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$55,063
• Tax + insurance: −$10,478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$16,702
• Net cashflow: $-2,710/mo
• Annual: $-32,526/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $2,940,000

Investor read

• This is a 23 × 34-bed/38.5-bath units multifamily listed at $10.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-118/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $10.02M (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $7.95M (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($9.24M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $7.95M (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $73k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $315k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#643 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools C-, commute D, crime F.
• Ontario-Montclair (urban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 28 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Montclair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $79,532/mo this rent would consume 1212% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1575% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?