3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,800 sqft ·
Built 1956
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,794/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$290
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$377
Net cashflow
$209/mo
Annual
$2,511/yr
Cap rate
7.73%
Cash-on-cash
5.13%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Northwood Elementary School (math 63% / reading 56%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 828 students, 63% FRL); Crestview High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,315 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $65k; list at $175k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29