27--7 Florence Tollgate Pl

Florence, NJ 08016

$99,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$719
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-239/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-239/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (2.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#255 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Florence Township School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #301 of 472 in NJ (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roebling Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 373 students, 40% FRL); Florence Riverfront School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #285 of 431 statewide, top 67%, 649 students, 34% FRL); Florence Township Memorial High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #169 of 399 statewide, top 44%, 484 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 91% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.