11229 Evans St

Sugar Creek, MO 64050

$45,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · Built 1906 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $851/mo
• Annual: $10,214/yr
• Cap rate: 28.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.06%
• DSCR: 4.61
• 1% rule: 3.30%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#261 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, commute B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abraham Mallinson Elementary (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 272 students, 80% FRL); Clifford H. Nowlin Middle (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 875 students, 80% FRL); Van Horn High (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #472 of 521 statewide, top 91%, 1,047 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 58% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 5.2% in Sugar Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.