208 Burma Rd

Castle Rock, WA 98611

$200,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 959 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $194/mo
• Annual: $2,331/yr
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Rock Elementary (702 students, 58% FRL); Castle Rock Middle School (348 students, 56% FRL); Castle Rock High School (449 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.