432 Stage Coach Blvd

Kimberly, AL 35091

$284,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-338/mo
• Annual: $-4,053/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $79,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $284k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (27.7% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.