420 E Lutton St

New Castle, PA 16101

$60,999C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$320
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $702/mo
• Annual: $8,427/yr
• Cap rate: 20.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.34%
• DSCR: 3.20
• 1% rule: 2.35%
• Cash to close: $17,080

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $61k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $61k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $421 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harry W Lockley Early Learning Center (775 students, 100% FRL); New Castle Jhs (math 6% / reading 21%, grade F, #482 of 512 statewide, top 94%, 706 students, 100% FRL); New Castle Shs (math 47% / reading 30%, grade F, #280 of 437 statewide, top 64%, 771 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 14% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the New Castle Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 8.9% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.