3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,064 sqft ·
Built 2003
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,580/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$471
Tax + insurance
−$130
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$647/mo
Annual
$7,760/yr
Cap rate
15.81%
Cash-on-cash
34.00%
DSCR
2.51
1% rule
1.76%
Cash to close
$25,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities D-.
Lexington City Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #136 of 178 in NC (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HYMBW98GA423TA
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29