3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1953
· Townhouse
· Active
· 96 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,045/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,075
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$429
Net cashflow
$265/mo
Annual
$3,180/yr
Cap rate
7.84%
Cash-on-cash
5.54%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$57,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (0.3% below list).
It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $187k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Colgate Elementary (math 7% / reading 10%, grade F, #664 of 860 statewide, top 78%, 502 students, 71% FRL); Holabird Middle (math 4% / reading 19%, grade F, #205 of 225 statewide, top 92%, 912 students, 65% FRL); Dundalk High (math 5% / reading 33%, grade F, #177 of 222 statewide, top 80%, 2,193 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 39% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $82k; list at $205k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.2% in Dundalk — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HYW1587713BJBG
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29