2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
598 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,145/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$124
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$240
Net cashflow
$125/mo
Annual
$1,495/yr
Cap rate
7.49%
Cash-on-cash
4.27%
DSCR
1.19
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (8.4% below list).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $114k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,507 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Fannindel ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,057 of 1,141 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Fannindel El (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #4,250 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 83 students, 95% FRL); Fannindel H S (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 64 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 70% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fannindel ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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