365 Route 111 Unit B6

Smithtown, NY 11787

$259,900F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,734/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$888
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-524/mo
• Annual: $-6,292/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hauppauge Union Free School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #82 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Elementary School (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 369 students, 19% FRL); Hauppauge Middle School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 748 students, 19% FRL); Hauppauge High School (math 97% / reading 42%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 1,079 students, 17% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.