345 Grand Ave

St. Paul, MN 55102

$323,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · Built 1892 · Townhouse · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,694
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $434/mo
• Annual: $5,208/yr
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $90,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $323k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $323k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $275k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At $3,268/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.