328 Pheasant Run Trl

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31216

$255,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,706 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-200/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-200/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (15.1% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heard Elementary School (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #663 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 541 students, 100% FRL); Rutland Middle School (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 812 students, 100% FRL); Rutland High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $173k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.