4827 Gray St

Detroit, MI 48215

$102,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $356/mo
• Annual: $4,270/yr
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.95%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $28,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $102k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $705 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.