2407 Dawn St

Jackson, MI 49203

$135,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 428 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,514/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,711/yr
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#197 in MI, #4,970 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, employment F.
• Jackson Public Schools (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #458 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 17 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.4% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.