4648 Pine Tree Cir Unit B

Sugar Hill, GA 30518

$219,900D+

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 266 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,126/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $160/mo
• Annual: $1,919/yr
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.12%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a condo listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#53 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sugar Hill Elementary School (math 55% / reading 56%, grade C, #173 of 1,228 statewide, top 14%, 1,107 students, 44% FRL); Lanier Middle School (math 52% / reading 56%, grade B-, #53 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 1,349 students, 46% FRL); Lanier High School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #149 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,853 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.