8518 Candlebrush Dr

Bunnlevel, NC 28356

$83,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $927/mo
• Annual: $11,125/yr
• Cap rate: 19.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.36%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.25%
• Cash to close: $23,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $927 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($580 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#676 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #349 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 442 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $84k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 3.5% in Bunnlevel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.