643 Pine Cone Rd

Dublin, GA 31021

$150,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $222/mo
• Annual: $2,666/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#322 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Laurens County (rural): math 45% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #42 of 174 in GA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Laurens Elementary (math 50% / reading 37%, grade F, #364 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 1,005 students, 85% FRL); West Laurens Middle School (math 48% / reading 48%, grade C-, #80 of 470 statewide, top 17%, 927 students, 85% FRL); West Laurens High School (math 41% / reading 28%, grade F, #88 of 424 statewide, top 22%, 1,271 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 55% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 55 units permitted in Laurens County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Laurens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $150k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.