2738 Jackson Rd

Victory Lakes, NJ 08094

$199,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,812/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $744/mo
• Annual: $8,934/yr
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.96%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#477 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Monroe Township Public School District (suburban): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #302 of 472 in NJ (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitehall Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 357 students, 31% FRL); Williamstown Middle School (math 18% / reading 43%, grade F, #303 of 431 statewide, top 72%, 1,819 students, 30% FRL); Williamstown High School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #234 of 399 statewide, top 59%, 1,782 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 16 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.2% in Victory Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.