3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,808 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 91 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,313/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$721
Tax + insurance
−$209
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$276
Net cashflow
$107/mo
Annual
$1,285/yr
Cap rate
7.23%
Cash-on-cash
3.34%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$38,500
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (4.5% below list).
It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $125k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Shreve Island Elementary School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #247 of 646 statewide, top 39%, 731 students, 56% FRL); Caddo Parish Middle Magnet School (math 79% / reading 93%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 1,003 students, 23% FRL); C.E. Byrd High School (math 44% / reading 55%, grade D, #37 of 265 statewide, top 14%, 1,526 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 64% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Caddo Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.6% in Shreveport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J1ZG1X5DSX4BWP
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29