2110 E Packard Ave

New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$128,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 937 sqft · Built 1983 · Land · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $110/mo
• Annual: $1,321/yr
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $35,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath land listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 647 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $128k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.