3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,002 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 69 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,113/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,993
Tax + insurance
−$633
HOA
−$88
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$654
Net cashflow
$-255/mo
Annual
$-3,056/yr
Cap rate
5.49%
Cash-on-cash
-2.87%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$106,397
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (9.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (18.1% below list).
It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $311k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 825 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Exterior walls
— Severe mold and water damage
Major: Roof
— No visible roof damage, but the satellite image shows a large footprint
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· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29