11212 Robins Glenn Dr

Robinwood, MD 21742

$234,900D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1991 · Townhouse · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$59
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $871/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($871/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (15.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $200k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#322 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A-, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ruth Ann Monroe Primary (567 students, 80% FRL); E. Russell Hicks Middle (math 8% / reading 31%, grade F, #154 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 824 students, 74% FRL); South Hagerstown High (math 30% / reading 63%, grade D-, #118 of 222 statewide, top 54%, 1,487 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 39% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 165% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $235k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.8% in Robinwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.