Tropic Plan

Greenville, TX 75401

$83,713B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 380 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,507/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$439
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $612/mo
• Annual: $7,340/yr
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.32%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $23,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $579 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,719 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, commute F.
• Greenville ISD (town): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #743 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 395 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.1% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.