19016 Encanto Aly

San Antonio, TX 78264

$196,999C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $307/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $55,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($307/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: S/Sgt Michael P Barrera Veterans El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 583 students, 89% FRL); Somerset H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 1,148 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 328 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.