604 Magnolia St

Freer, TX 78357

$48,500A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 944 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $456/mo
• Annual: $5,475/yr
• Cap rate: 17.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.32%
• DSCR: 2.79
• 1% rule: 2.12%
• Cash to close: $13,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $332 of equity ($335 loan paydown + $-3 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Freer ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Norman M Thomas El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 374 students, 80% FRL); Lucy Aragon J H (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 190 students, 83% FRL); Freer H S (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 170 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP.
• Duval County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.