4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,678 sqft ·
Built 1961
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 274 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,795/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$471
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$377
Net cashflow
$109/mo
Annual
$1,308/yr
Cap rate
7.11%
Cash-on-cash
2.92%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$44,772
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D-.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29