1299 Forestbrook Ln

Wellford, SC 29303

$195,905D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,518 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,893/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $21/mo
• Annual: $256/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $54,853

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($256/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#59 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spartanburg 06 (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #35 of 80 in SC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairforest Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #369 of 597 statewide, top 64%, 782 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,129 units permitted in Spartanburg County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spartanburg County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Wellford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,893/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1218% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.