2409 Arapahoe Trl

Beatrice, NE 68310

$14,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 229 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$73
• Tax + insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $805/mo
• Annual: $9,664/yr
• Cap rate: 75.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 246.53%
• DSCR: 11.97
• 1% rule: 8.03%
• Cash to close: $3,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $14k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $805 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $12k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $97 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $420 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in NE, #1,637 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Beatrice Public Schools (town): math 40% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #92 of 111 in NE (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stoddard Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 502 statewide, top 63%, 217 students, 58% FRL); Beatrice Middle School (math 42% / reading 43%, grade D-, #71 of 128 statewide, top 55%, 421 students, 48% FRL); Beatrice High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #98 of 261 statewide, top 40%, 644 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 41 units permitted in Gage County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gage County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3315% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 75.3% vs local median 4.7% in Beatrice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.