32742 Alipaz St #75

San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675

$669,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,513
• Tax + insurance: −$539
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,117
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,108/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $187,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $670k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $639k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $532k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($660k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $532k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#114 in CA, #4,023 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kinoshita Elementary (369 students, 90% FRL); Marco Forster Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,082 students, 70% FRL); San Juan Hills High (math 50% / reading 75%, grade B-, #187 of 1,170 statewide, top 16%, 2,857 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 19% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Capistrano Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $670k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in San Juan Capistrano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.