320 Glen Ayre St

Dacono, CO 80514

$399,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-378/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-378/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#267 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thunder Valley Pk-8 (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #781 of 966 statewide, top 82%, 832 students, 57% FRL); Frederick Senior High School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #196 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,412 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 27% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in Dacono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.