48 Allen St

Rumson, NJ 07760

$1,575,000D+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,259
• Tax + insurance: −$1,742
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $1,849/mo
• Annual: $22,187/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $441,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.57M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.50M (4.8% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#326 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rumson-Fair Haven Regional High School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #82 of 612 in NJ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $620k; list at $1.57M implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rumson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.