2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
400 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Active
· 333 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,076/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$52
Tax + insurance
−$17
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$226
Net cashflow
$781/mo
Annual
$9,371/yr
Cap rate
100.00%
Cash-on-cash
334.67%
DSCR
15.89
1% rule
10.76%
Cash to close
$2,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $10k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $9k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#78 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
Santa Cruz Valley Union High School District (4454) (town): math 11% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #382 of 501 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Santa Cruz Valley Union High School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #230 of 381 statewide, top 61%, 340 students, 78% FRL).
Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 100.0% vs local median 1.3% in Eloy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J6J9144GSZBW26
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29