195 Star Rd

Wilburn, AR 72543

$66,990B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,339/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $569/mo
• Annual: $6,832/yr
• Cap rate: 17.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.68%
• DSCR: 2.81
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $18,757

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $464 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Concord School District (rural): math 39% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #114 of 238 in AR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #305 of 454 statewide, top 71%, 184 students, 63% FRL); Concord High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #31 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 189 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.