Belmont (Adams) Plan

Richmond, KY 40475

$75,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$467
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $269/mo
• Annual: $3,226/yr
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.16%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 2.10%
• Cash to close: $21,279

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#163 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.0% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.