128 E Oak St #2

Louisville, KY 40203

$99,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · Built 1900 · Condo · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $876/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$146
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,662/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (11.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $79k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Engelhard Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 276 students, 76% FRL); Meyzeek Middle (math 50% / reading 61%, grade B-, #7 of 217 statewide, top 3%, 930 students, 42% FRL); Iroquois High (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #245 of 254 statewide, top 97%, 1,090 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 103d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?