1554-1A Northgate Sq Apt 1A

Reston, VA 20190

$150,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$638
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-372/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-372/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (3.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#7 in VA, #177 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest Edge Elementary (math 53% / reading 60%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 447 students, 65% FRL); Hughes Middle (math 56% / reading 75%, grade A-, #116 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 993 students, 41% FRL); South Lakes High (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 2,530 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 21% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.6% in Reston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.