12405 NE 1240 Private Road

Bent Tree Harbor, MO 64776

$112,000D

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1982 · Other · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-584/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-584/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($774 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lakeland R-III (rural): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #269 of 324 in MO (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeland Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 222 students, 66% FRL); Lakeland High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 191 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $112k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bent Tree Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.